Call of Duty and EA Sports FC at risk of losing players during GTA 6 launch
The upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to impact several major gaming franchises. According to new data from consultancy Open World, competitive shooters and sports games are the most likely to lose players to the highly anticipated title from Rockstar Games.
The risk assessment conducted by Open World analyzed historical audience overlap and player intent to identify which genres might suffer during the GTA 6 launch window. The findings indicate that titles such as Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, and Fortnite, alongside sports giants EA Sports FC and NBA 2K, are at the highest risk of losing their player base.
Interestingly, Counter-Strike 2 emerged as an outlier. While it shares a significant player overlap with the GTA series, it shows lower intent to play GTA 6 at launch, partly due to its lack of a console presence.
The study highlights that players of movement-focused driving games and those who prefer high-stakes, open-world gameplay are most likely to shift their attention to GTA 6. The assessment notes that even highly dedicated communities for games like Fortnite or Call of Duty are not immune, stating that player loyalty alone will not protect a game from the impact of the Rockstar Games release.
To mitigate these risks, Open World recommends that developers avoid major content updates or heavy paid marketing during the GTA 6 launch window. Instead, the consultancy suggests maintaining enough activity to support existing players and saving significant re-engagement pushes for when market attention begins to normalize.
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